Rick Mattoon: Is the Recession Over?

Economic indicators show that the recession is over.  This is the opinion of Rick Mattoon, a senior economist and advisor in the economic research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a lecturer at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.  Rick’s primary research focuses on issues facing the Midwest regional economy.

In a recent interview for the Alter NOW Podcasts, Mattoon warned that most people probably don’t feel like the nation is coming out of a recession because there are few signs of job creation or easier access to credit.  One of the major concerns economists have is that this will be a double-dip “W-shaped” recession because once the bump from the $787 billion stimulus ends, there will be scant pent-up consumer demand for products and services to take the place of government spending.

One positive sign is an uptick in hiring by temporary employment agencies, which usually is considered to be a good harbinger of what future demand will be.  Another interesting theory about this particular recession in terms of jobs is the idea that companies adjusted their employee levels much more aggressively at the beginning of this cycle.  As a result, they are operating at extremely lean levels and so may hire earlier rather than later.

One problem is that there is a skills mismatch in the economy.  Many people who have lost their jobs don’t possess the right skills to find employment in growth industries such as clean energy or healthcare.  The challenge is training these individuals to bring their skills up to par.